2022-23 NBA Win Totals Predictions

With the NBA season set to start Tuesday, the rest of the league begins the attempt to dethrone the Golden State Warriors. Here are my predictions on each team's win total, along with my confidence level for each (odds courtesy ):

Atlanta Hawks 

Over 46.5: -125
Under 46.5: +105

At one point, it appeared the Hawks were on the cusp of being the team of the future in the East. They still have Trae Young and John Collins, but it's just not enough in a stacked conference. With so many games against the Celtics, Heat, Bucks, Nets and 76ers, it won't be easy for them to go too far past the 40-win total. 

Projection: 42 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Boston Celtics

Over 54.5: +110
Under 54.5: -130

The Celtics had one of the better offseasons of any team in the league. They added Malcolm Brogdon and Blake Griffin, providing additional depth to the sensational trio of Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. The only question mark is how they handle working under interim coach Joe Mazulla. This one should be close.

Projection: 55 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Brooklyn Nets

Over 50.5: -115
Under 50.5: -105

The Nets will struggle to make 50 wins because of the Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving dynamic. While they are two of the league's most dynamic players, they also come with baggage. Durant has durability issues and Irving just has issues, so they are unpredictable. I have them falling short, though not by much.

Projection: 49 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

Charlotte Hornets

Over 36.5: -115
Under 36.5: -105

This number feels quite low considering the Hornets won 43 games a year ago. This team didn't get worse – it just failed to improve. But LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier will make sure the Hornets get as close as possible to 40 wins. 

Projection: 39 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Chicago Bulls

Over 42.5: -105
Under 42.5: -115

The Bulls have one of the league's most talented duos in DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine. Those two alone are enough to get the Bulls at least 30 wins. Coach Billy Donovan is somewhat on the hot seat, so he could be fighting for his job. The Bulls won't take off any nights, and have me feeling confident that they'll go over their win total. 

Projection: 44 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Cleveland Cavaliers 

Over 46.5: -125
Under 46.5: +105

The Cavs have so much motivation entering this season after falling one victory shy of the playoffs. They could emerge as contenders in the East if newly-acquired Donovan Mitchell quickly adjusts to his new teammates. The Cavs' starting lineup is just as good as any in the league. Their only weakness is youth. 

Projection: 48 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dallas Mavericks 

Over 48.5: -110
Under 48.5: -110

Several teams in the West, including Minnesota and New Orleans, got better. And the Clippers got healthy. The Mavericks aren't going to be able to win games solely behind star Luka Doncic. Unless someone else emerges, the Mavs could find themselves fighting for a playoff berth. I have them falling well short of their total.

Projection: 45 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Denver Nuggets

Over 51.5: -110
Under 51.5: -110

The Nuggets' time may have passed. They've had their chances but the teams beneath them have caught up. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic can only take them so far. It just seems this team's tank is emptying – and fast. 

Projection: 49 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

Detroit Pistons

Over 29.5: -130
Under 29.5: +110

The Pistons are entering yet another year of rebuilding. They should improve on last year's 23-win total, but not by much. Their goal this season is being the best of the bottom-feeders, which is fully possible – but I just don't see a path to 30 victories here.

Projection: 25 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Golden State Warriors

Over 52.5: -110
Under 52.5: -110

The Warriors have won at least 50 games seven of the last nine seasons. And there's no reason to think the run ends anytime soon. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are going strong, while James Wiseman is arguably the league's top breakout candidate. The beat goes on. 

Projection: 55 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston Rockets 

Over 23.5: -105
Under 23.5: -115

The Rockets are in yet another rebuilding year. Jalen Green is one of the league's most exciting young players but he doesn't have much help. Jabari Smith Jr., could emerge as the steal of last year's draft, so keep an eye on him – but I'm just not buying 24 or more wins for this team.

Projection: 20 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Indiana Pacers

Over 24.5: +100
Under 24.5: -130

The Pacers will likely miss the playoffs for a third straight season. They are just too inexperienced this season, having only four players with at least five years in the league. An overhaul to the roster just means the Pacers are thinking toward the future. Still, there's too much talent here to completely fall flat.

Projection: 25 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Clippers 

Over 53.5: -110
Under 53.5: -110

The Clippers finally get the opportunity to showcase the duo of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George after Leonard missed all of last season with an ACL injury. The Clippers also added veteran guard John Wall, making them a contender in the West. This could be close, but I like the Over.

Projection: 54 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Los Angeles Lakers 

Over 44.5: -110
Under 44.5: -110

It's becoming tougher to pick against LeBron James. He's entering his 20th season but has shown no signs of slowing down. If Anthony Davis stays healthy and Russell Westbrook behaves, the Lakers could be a playoff team. 

Projection: 45 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Memphis Grizzlies 

Over 49.5: -110
Under 49.5: -110

The Grizzlies are arguably the league's most exciting teams. Ja Morant is a legit candidate for MVP. The only thing slowing this team down is experience, but it should continue to get better every year.  I feel really good about the Over here.

Projection: 53 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Heat 

Over 49.5: +105
Under 49.5: -125

With Tyler Herro in the starting lineup, the Heat have arguably one of the best opening units in the league. If Herro and Bam Adebayo take their next steps, they could make yet another run at the No. 1 seed in the East. Much of that depends on whether Kyle Lowry can continue to be productive into his age-36 season. I'm betting he can.

Projection: 52 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Milwaukee Bucks 

Over 53.5: -110
Under 53.5: -110

The only reason the Bucks weren't in the NBA Finals last year was because of an injury to Khris Middleton. With a healthy Middleton, the Bucks are once again among the contenders in the East. Look for them to chase the 60-win plateau. Even being conservative, I like the Over.

Projection: 55 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Minnesota Timberwolves 

Over 49.5: -110
Under 49.5: -110

The Timberwolves had arguably the busiest offseason of any team. They acquired Rudy Gobert during free agency, pairing him with Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt. Look for Anthony Edwards to take his game to another level and enter his name in the MVP discussion. I have them falling short of their total, but mnot by much.

Projection: 48 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

New Orleans Pelicans 

Over 45.5: +100
Under 45.5: -120

The Pelicans finally have a healthy Zion Williamson and he's ready for a breakthrough year. Last year they put a scare into the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and they return the majority of their core. The Pelicans are on the cusp of being a top-tier team in the West. Will it happen this season? I'm skeptical.

Projection: 46 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

New York Knicks

Over 38.5: -110
Under 38.5: -110

The Knicks are still an organization in disarray and are beginning another rebuilding year. They added Jalen Brunson in the offseason but the move isn't enough to change much. They are still a bottom-tier team in the East. 

Projection: 34 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 23.5: -115
Under 23.5: -105

The Thunder were dealt a huge blow when first-round pick Chet Holmgren was lost for the season after sustaining an injury in a pro-am event. The good news is they have a high chance of receiving next year's No. 1 pick. 

Projection: 20 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Orlando Magic 

Over 26.5: -120
Under 26.5: +100

The Magic have surrounded No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero with plenty of young talent. The question is whether his teammates will develop. The Magic are also are searching for consistency from guard Markelle Fultz, who is a former No. 1 pick. 

Projection: 24 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Philadelphia 76ers 

Over 50.5: -135
Under 50.5: +115

The Sixers are hoping forward P.J. Tucker is the missing piece in their championship run. Last year they lost to the Heat in the second round but Tuckers should provide the toughness and experience that is needed during the playoffs. I like the Sixers to blow past their win total, but the range of outcomes here feels wider than with other top-tier teams.

Projection: 54 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Phoenix Suns 

Over 52.5: +100
Under 52.5: -120

This is basically a make-or-break year for the Suns. The window is surely closing, but they have enough talent to make another run at the title. Devin Booker will once again be in the MVP race. The question is this: Can they rebound from last year's second-round exit against the Mavs? I'm not so sure they can.

Projection: 51 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Portland Trail Blazers

Over 39.5: +105
Under 39.5: -125

The Trail Blazers have become the Damian Lillard Show the past few years. Last season they missed the playoffs for the first time in eight years and not much improvement was made during the summer. The Blazers may have to start thinking of rebuilding through the draft. I'm locking them in to finish in the mid-30s in wins.

Projection: 35 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

San Antonio Spurs

Over 22.5: +100
Under 22.5: -120

Prediction: 25

The days of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are long gone. The Spurs have Keldon Johnson, who has emerged as a star-in-the-making – but they also have four starters who are under 23, so experience is lacking. Still, 22.5 is low, even for this green unit.

Projection: 25 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sacramento Kings 

Over 34.5: -110
Under 34.5: -110

The Kings have a new coach in Mike Brown, so there will be an adjustment process. Rookie Keegan Murray could easily step into the lead role this season because he's that good. Still, the Kings are a year away or two from thinking about making the playoffs. 

Projection: 30 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐

Toronto Raptors 

Over 46.5: -105
Under 46.5: -115

The Raptors are on the outside looking in when it comes to contending in the East. That said, they have Pascal Siakam and Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes to build around, and Fred VanVleet is proving he can succeed with Kyle Lowry. The Raptors have firepower – but not enough to compete with the Sixers, Celtics, Heat, Bucks and Nets. 

Projection: 47 (Over)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Utah Jazz 

Over 25.5: +110
Under 25.5: -135

The Jazz made it clear they are in rebuilding mode when they traded Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell during the offseason. It will be hard for them to compete in the West because they just don't have the talent. Look for them to attempt to get better via the draft. 

Projection: 22 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Washington Wizards 

Over 35.5: -110
Under 35.5: -110

The Wizards were flirting with moving Bradley Beal but decided to sign him to the super max. It means they are committed to building around him. The addition of Kristaps Porzingis gives them a solid foundation but the Wizards need another player before becoming a playoff contender. 

Projection: 32 (Under)
Confidence Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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